It was another “perfect phone call” by Donald Trump. The night before Thanksgiving, the president-elect thanked his Mexican counterpart for her commitment to deterring illegal immigration to the United States. “Just had a wonderful conversation with the new President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. She has agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border,” Trump posted on Truth Social. Sheinbaum offered a slightly different account of the conversation, emphasizing Mexico’s efforts to deter migrant caravans while maintaining that she wouldn’t “close borders.”
Days earlier, Trump had threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on both Canada and Mexico “until such time as drugs … and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” The Mexican president responded with a sternly worded letter, read aloud during her daily news conference. Sheinbaum noted that the catastrophic death toll of Mexico’s ongoing drug war results from US demand for illicit drugs trafficked by cartels. She urged cooperation between the two countries—and also warned of retaliatory tariffs should Trump follow through with his threat.
It was possible for MAGA die-hards, Mexican nationalists, and Trump opponents stateside to spin the interaction as a win for their side, but it didn’t really change the status quo. Mexico has agreed to do nothing more than it is already doing to curb migration, and Trump hasn’t ruled out tariffs against Mexico. However, lost amid all the sound and fury were hints that Trump and Sheinbaum may be able to forge a productive relationship—as was the case with her predecessor and mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, popularly known as AMLO.
For starters, AMLO appears to have taken pains to boost his recently inaugurated successor’s standing with Trump. In his last year in office, he initiated what Reuters has described as the “largest migration crackdown in Mexico’s history,” with migrant apprehensions doubling to more than 1.2 million during fiscal year 2024. This, in addition to the equally forceful crackdown north of the Rio Grande. Having spent almost four years claiming there was nothing he could do to reduce illegal immigration, in June, President Biden issued an executive order barring migrants from soliciting asylum after daily encounters exceed 2,500. The result was that monthly crossings fell by more than 80 percent, with Mexican apprehensions subsequently exceeding those of US Customs and Border Patrol. In exchange, AMLO seemingly brokered a pact of silence from the Biden administration—if not legacy media—on his controversial energy and judicial reforms.
The truth is that both the United States and Mexico are armed with nuclear options capable of inflicting immense pain across the border. Whatever long-term benefit that could result from a 25 percent tariff against Mexico would be grossly outweighed by the short-term misery inflicted on inflation-wary Americans. It is conceivable that Mexico would suffer more from the tariffs in the long run, but it isn’t in Trump’s interest to see a sudden resurgence in border crossings should Mexico decide to reduce enforcement and redirect migrant buses north. For these and other reasons, both leaders have strong incentives to find common ground.
An undercovered aspect of the call between Trump and Sheinbaum was the fact that the American president-elect seemingly listened to his left-wing counterpart. During her subsequent news conference, Sheinbaum relayed her discussion with Trump on the importance of reducing fentanyl consumption in the United States. In her telling, the president-elect was intrigued by her account of an AMLO-led publicity campaign against fentanyl consumption. And sure enough, Trump acknowledged as much on Truth Social, stating: “I will be working on a large scale United States Advertising Campaign, explaining how bad Fentanyl is for people to use…By the time the Campaign is over, everyone will know how really bad the horror of this Drug is.”
To be sure, it is concerning that so many within the Republican Party—including the president-elect—have been openly toying with the idea of invading Mexico. After Trump assumed a deliberately ambiguous posture during the GOP primary, in July, Fox News’s Jesse Watters pressed the then-candidate on whether he was still open to cross-border military action. His response: “Mexico’s gonna have to straighten it out really fast, or the answer is absolutely.”
“There is only so much that Mexico can do without corresponding action stateside.”
Still, both AMLO and Sheinbaum have interpreted Trump’s belligerence as campaign rhetoric. Further, much as with last week’s phone call, AMLO claimed that Trump always heeded his council, notably on whether or not to designate Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations.
Trump would also do well to acknowledge that there is only so much that Mexico can do without corresponding action stateside on both drugs and migration. As recent events make clear, Mexican enforcement would not have been anywhere near as successful without Biden’s crackdown on asylum. Indeed, officials in Sheinbaum’s administration have stressed the need for an overhaul of US asylum policy. Ironically, Biden has essentially revived a watered-down version of Trump’s Remain in Mexico policy. Should Trump wish to revive the policy in full, he will need to acquiesce to Sheinbaum’s demands much as she acquiesces to his.
For the moment, it seems that Trump’s tariff threats are mostly a tactic for bringing rivals and allies alike to the negotiating table. It remains to be seen whether Sheinbaum, like her mentor, can forge an effective working relationship with Trump, as would be in both nations’ interest.