Many Canadians, including myself, took it for granted that the Conservatives would sweep the 2025 election. The Liberals were polling extremely poorly, with Justin Trudeau highly unpopular as he left office amid rising inflation and broad pessimism about the country’s future. The Liberals’ social policies were widely derided among what seemed to be an increasingly conservative youth. The Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre did very little to create a cohesive platform and seemed to assume that a majority government would fall into their laps by default.
Polling immediately picked up once Mark Carney, the central banker, won the Liberal Party leadership over former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. Carney immediately dealt a major blow to the Conservatives by ending the federal carbon tax, which had been Poilievre’s only distinguishing promise. Poilievre was then left scrambling to differentiate himself, and struggled to impress the electorate. Compared to the relatively young Poilievre, Carney exuded maturity and sophistication. From that point on, the campaign winds did not stop shifting, culminating in polling showing the Liberals slightly overtaking the Conservatives by election day.