Was the 2024 election a political freak of nature—the result of an aging president unwilling to acknowledge his disability until it was too late? Was it merely an instance of the anti-incumbency trend seen in many countries in the wake of post-pandemic inflation? Or did the dismal losses for the Democrats betoken future difficulties for the party?
There is no doubt that Harris was tarred by Biden’s unpopularity and by rising grocery prices, but the Democratic losses went below the presidential level and include Senate and House races they were supposed to win handily. The election revealed some new weaknesses for Democrats—for instance, among younger voters—but it rested on larger demographic and geographical trends that have haunted the Democrats for decades.
The 2024 results were consistent with Hillary Clinton’s defeat in 2016. The Democrats’ victory in 2020 was the result of exceptional circumstances—Donald Trump’s mishandling of the pandemic, the Democratic establishment’s boost of the least unelectable candidate, Joe Biden, and the pandemic shielding that candidate from the rigors of a normal campaign. Without a dramatic change in how voters perceive the Democrats, the trends that were evident in the 2016 and 2024 elections are likely to persist and could provide the Republicans an advantage over the next decade or so.
In what follows, I’ll explain what these trends are and how they have affected Democrats’ chances in presidential and senate elections. If I had to single out a difference between my views and those of other commentators, it would be on the importance of political geography. Finally, I’ll say something about what the Democrats need to improve their standing. Here, I think the main difference I would have with many Democrats is on the question of whether a renewed focus on economics will be enough to revive the party.