There have been five comprehensive surveys of public opinion in the last two weeks that attempt to assess President Donald Trump’s standing with the public at the end of his first hundred days. The polls are by The New York Times/Siena, The Washington Post/Ipsos, CBS News/YouGov, NPR/Marist, and The Economist/YouGov. Some of the results are unsurprising: Trump is in trouble with the public, but so are the Democrats. But nestled in the crosstabs are a few more noteworthy findings: Trump is losing ground among groups that have been faithfully Republican, but the Democrats continue to lose ground among groups they had relied on.
Based on the 60 questions asked by The Washington Post among ten different demographic and ideological categories, Trump’s greatest strength is among the overlapping categories of conservatives and white evangelical Protestants. A majority of these two groups (and no others) thought Trump’s economic plans would “put the United States on a stronger foundation for the long term.” They alone favored shutting down the Department of Education. Fifty-eight percent of conservatives and half of white evangelicals back ending birthright citizenship, while 49 percent of conservatives and 45 percent of white Protestant evangelicals think Trump’s tariffs will have a “positive” effect on inflation.
There were two other groups from which Trump has customarily received enthusiastic support that still appear to be on board. A majority of men without college degrees and rural voters were the only other groups that thought “Trump is in touch with most of the people in the United States.” But they weren’t willing to buy everything the president was selling. By 60 to 38 percent, white men without college degrees thought Trump’s tariff strategy would boost rather than stem inflation. Only pluralities of rural residents and men without college degrees thought that Trump’s plans would “put the United States on a stronger foundation for the long term.”
The best way to pick out Trump’s biggest detractors is to find out who opposes even White House policies that are generally popular. The New York Times survey found that 52 percent of voters back Trump deporting illegal immigrants, but in the Washington Post poll, 60 percent or more of liberals, the young, blacks, Hispanics, people with post-graduate degrees and city dwellers disapprove of Trump's immigration policies. The same groups also disapprove by 60 percent or more of Trump’s overall performance and his closing down of federal agencies, and reject the idea that he is looking out for the interests of “average Americans.” These results are consistent with the other polls with two qualifications. Hispanics and the young are not quite at 60 percent disapproval of Trump's policies in several of the polls, but within a few percentage points.
In the 2024 election, Trump gained support among the young, but that support seems to have dissipated. Of all the age groups, the young (18-29) are the most disapproving and by wide majorities of Trump’s handling of the presidency; according to the New York Times poll, they have the least favorable view of him, they think he has gone “too far” in making changes to the country’s political and economic system, and they think these changes are “bad for the country.”
Of white voters, disaggregated by sex and education, the most opposed to Trump are college-educated women. Since 1988, a majority of college-educated women have backed the Democratic presidential nominee, but the recent surveys suggest they are reaching new heights in their hostility toward a Republican president. Among whites, they are the only group to disapprove of Trump’s policies on curbing illegal immigration and to say that Trump's attempt to eliminate Diversity, Equity and Inclusion programs has gone “too far.” In the NPR poll, 65 percent give Trump an “F” on handling the economy. (By contrast, 51 percent of college-educated men and 30 percent of men without degrees give Trump an “F.”) Sixty-nine percent of white college-educated women disapprove of his handling of foreign policy.
There are two groups that have backed Trump in the past that appear to have become critical of his second administration. A majority of seniors (aged 65 and over) backed Democratic presidential candidates in 1992, 1996 and 2000, but after that election, seniors have backed the Republican candidate every four years. In the last election, Trump edged Kamala Harris among this demographic, by 51 to 47 percent.
In the recent surveys, only the young exceeded seniors in their dislike of Trump. Seniors “strongly disapprove” of the way Trump “is handling his job as president” (Economist); they believe Trump “is tearing down the system completely” (New York Times); they “dislike” Trump “a lot” (Economist); they are “very concerned” that Trump is reducing the size and role of government in US society (Washington Post); they believe Trump is making “major changes to how the US government works” and that these changes are “for the worse” (CBS). They like his policies on immigration, but not on the economy or on foreign policy.
“These polls suggest that Trump’s electoral majority may be evaporating.”
The other group that may be turning on Trump is white women without college degrees. In the 2024, Trump won these voters by a resounding 62 to 37 percent, but unlike their male counterparts, they do not appear to be in step with his administration. A majority are concerned that Trump is doing “too much” to reduce the size and role of the federal government. A plurality says that diversity, equity, and inclusion programs “help level the playing field for people who have been denied equal opportunity” (Washington Post). They are divided 47 to 47 on approval of his administration, with 41 percent “strongly” disapproving. And they disapprove of his handling of the economy, tariffs, and foreign policy (NPR).
These polls suggest that Trump’s electoral majority may be evaporating. He couldn’t have won in 2024 if he had to rely primarily on white evangelicals, self-identified conservatives, and working-class white men. His only policies that generally meet voters’ approval are his attempts to discourage illegal immigration. Some, like the reduction in funding for medical research, are opposed by all the different voting groups, including self-identified Republicans and conservatives.
The one point of consolation to Trump supporters in these hundred days polls is that voters don’t have a high opinion of the Democrats either. Even the groups that are most critical of Trump are also unhappy with the Democrats. By 70 to 29 percent, white women with college degrees say the Democrats are “out of touch with the concerns of most people.” Young people say the Democrats are out of touch by 72 to 28 percent and Hispanics by 59 to 41 percent (Washington Post). Sixty-five percent of seniors have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. (By contrast, only 55 percent have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party.) Hispanics have only a 48 to 43 percent favorable view (Economist). According to the Spring Harvard Youth Poll, the proportion of the young who approve of the Democrats in Congress has dropped from 42 percent in 2017 to 23 percent today. Democrats are ahead by a slim three percentage points in the New York Times poll on which party's congressional candidate would get a respondent’s vote.
These results are very similar to those from April 2017, at the beginning of Trump’s first term. One would have expected Trump, who won a popular majority this time, and whose approval ratings were initially higher than they were in his first term, to have enjoyed better poll ratings. But Trump has squandered his initial popularity by conducting policies that appeal primarily to his most fervent supporters or that reflect his own private grievances. Trump’s lack of popularity suggests, even 18 months out, that the Democrats have a good shot at winning back the House of Representatives in November 2026, as they did in November 2018.
But there is no indication from these polls that the Democrats have righted the ship from the last election. It is likely that elections in the United States will continue to be decided by which party can convince the electorate to focus on its opponents’ misdeeds, incompetence, and unpopular policies and ignore its own. That was the secret of Trump’s success in 2016 and 2024 and of the Democrats’ success in 2018, 2020, and 2022. The predominance of this “lesser-evil” politics is manifested in growing alienation from both parties and in the growing number of voters who identify as independents. In Gallup’s last survey of political identification, both parties were stuck at 28 percent and independents had risen to 43 percent.
Of course, political scientists will tell you that most independents lean to either Democrats or Republicans. That’s true, but their choice to label themselves “independents” reflects growing disillusionment with parties and politics. That, along with each party’s ability to undo what the other has tried to accomplish, has led to political stagnation and decline. All in all, these polls suggest American politics will remain a partisan seesaw for the foreseeable future.